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A decade following the UK entered into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.

That represents the warning from two leading journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Political Institutions Ill-Equipped

Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our region remains highly fragile."

Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They hope to stir debate on the matter with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.

"What troubles everyone, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.

"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are unable to accept defeat and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."

Constitutional Provision

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim this point is imminent, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there might be a referendum.

Lack of Informed Dialogue

Ideological statements for and against unity has hidden the shortage of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A lot has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the essentials. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"

Book's Approach

In the book, neither author advocates unity or the status quo. Each authors two essays that aim for impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, marshalling economic and societal figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Arguments cover flags and symbols, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to inform and provoke conversation.

"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acknowledgement of the notion that there could be valid points on both sides."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but refuse paying higher taxes or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.

"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is other than just stating: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"

Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, justified perspectives, he commented. "One side will win on this issue and somebody will in the end be defeated but both parties has got something to learn from the opposing positions."

Request for More Extensive Debate

Westminster should participate in the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish matter."