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Usually, the NFL's Coach of the Year award adheres to a straightforward pattern. It often acts as a type of apology. Our apologies we underestimated your team in our preseason forecasts.

In theory, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the largest improvement receives the award. However, it sparks an annual debate about preseason outlooks and whether we're genuinely honoring excellent coaching or just the biggest shock.

However the latest competition is distinctly unique. The group of nominees is exceptionally strong. It has been the season of turnarounds. The NFL has been chaotic, with recent division champions falling away and longtime strugglers rising together. Under an typical season, a coach guiding the Denver Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a chaotic and entertaining year, he's up against several other exceptional candidates.

Here is how the ideal vote could look.

5) Ben Johnson, His Team, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors love signal-callers. History shows this. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you solve a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson hasn't just corrected his young quarterback; he's freed him. Within an ideal ecosystem, the QB has been afforded the opportunity to display his special talent. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive Expected Points Added per play. This isn't a hot streak – it's prolonged dominance. Under Johnson, Williams has become more confident, less reckless, and has eagerly surrendered to the system rather than freelancing. It is an offense built solely in Johnson's vision: a bully-ball ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a imaginative passing attack that creates wide receiver receivers consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when clear throws haven't been there, he's been capable to create magic from nothing.

Johnson came to Chicago with a clear offensive philosophy. Almost every bet – rebuilding the offensive line, utilizing the tight ends, transforming the QB into a rhythm passer – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a first-year head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who entered the building with the kind of pressure Johnson did. For two straight cycles, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching carousel. But when it comes to hiring a leader, there are zero sure things. Remarkably, Johnson has met the hype – and even surpassed them. He's demonstrated not only to be a scheme dork but the type of culture builder that can breathe new life into an organization.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this isn't a normal campaign!

Where his candidacy comes a bit unstuck is on the defensive side. The Bears presently rank 25th in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and takeaways are famously inconsistent. Coaches can emphasise creating turnovers, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offensive production is legitimate. He's ranked lower because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive heavy lifting. If not for a few breaks of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional turnaround, and the core is established for long-term success. However Johnson falls short here.

4) Liam Coen, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

Coen is in a comparable situation to his counterpart. He's a fellow rookie leader who has orchestrated a rapid resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the most complete all-around football of his career. And he's also spearheaded the overhaul of a defense that now ranks number five in the NFL in EPA per play.

Even more impressively, he has excelled at the leadership aspects, which wasn't a guarantee after his initial public introduction and some of his offseason moves.

Coen walked into the Jaguars with an uncommonly raw staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed their staff with the ideal staff mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. Starting with the leader on down to coordinators to position coaches, the Jaguars are stocked with first-timers. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in practice – as past failures are a warning – because everyone is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring everyone and everything together.

After an early strong beginning, there was a risk that the campaign would go off the track. A midseason setback caused the Jags wobbling again. That's typically when leaders overcorrect. He didn't. Instead, he simplified the approach. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking sustainable ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more often.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's No 3 playoff seed. He gets the tiniest knock in the standings because he took over a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can maximize that roster.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Every Strong of the Year argument has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his QB move.

Parting ways from a veteran, signing a new signal-caller and pairing him with an new offensive coordinator could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it made it. Through the mid point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player contender. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per pass attempt over the latter part of the season, putting him only a single place ahead of peers.

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